Online Seminar on giant solar flares - May 26, 2020
Soumis par mchane-y le mer, 29/04/2020 - 10:53
Annonce transmise par Carine Briand (LESIA)
De: Patricia Doherty <patricia.doherty@bc.edu>
Objet: 1st SCOSTEP/PRESTO Online Seminar - May 26, 2020
Date: 20 avril 2020 à 18:41:59 UTC+2
Répondre à: patricia.doherty@bc.edu
Dear Colleagues,
PRESTO (Predictability of the Variable Solar-terrestrial Coupling) is the new SCOSTEP 5-year program of 2020-2024. WIth the current difficulties of hosting face-to-face meetings, SCOSTEP/PRESTO will host online seminars. We are pleased to announce that the 1st SCOSTEP/PRESTO online seminar will be held on May 26, 2020. The speaker will be Dr. Kanya Kusano of ISEE, Nagoya, Japan If you are interested, please register for the seminar via the zoom registration link shown below. Please also view the SCOSTEP website (www.bc.edu/SCOSTEP) for more information on PRESTO.
With best regards,
Ramon Lopez (PRESTO chair)
Katja Matthes and Jie Zhang (PRESTO co-chair)
***************************
Title: A Challenge to Physics-based Prediction of Giant Solar Flares
Author: Kanya Kusano (Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University, Japan)
Date/time: May 26 (Tue), 2020, 12:00-13:00 UT
Zoom Registration URL:
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_rCd6IEGhSM-M7pI7oobk-A
Abstract:
Solar flares are catastrophic explosions in the solar corona and may potentially cause a severe space weather disaster. However, because the onset mechanism of solar flares is not yet well elucidated, most of the flare forecasts in operation rely on empirical methods. We recently developed a new physics-based model, called the κ-scheme, for predicting giant solar flares as one of the major outcomes of the Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP), which is the Japanese nation-wide project for space weather and space climate study. The κ-scheme is able to predict imminent giant solar flares through the critical condition of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instability triggered by magnetic reconnection. An analysis of the largest solar flares in solar cycle 24 indicates that the κ-scheme can provide precise information, including location and size, of possible giant solar flares with a small exception. Through this study, we also discovered that the magnetic twist flux density in the vicinity of the magnetic polarity inversion line (PIL) on the solar surface plays a crucial role in determining when, where, and how large solar flares may occur. Finally, we will discuss how important is the development of physics-based prediction to improve our predictive capability and the scientific understanding of solar-terrestrial system dynamics.
With best regards,
Ramon Lopez (PRESTO chair)
Katja Matthes and Jie Zhang (PRESTO co-chair)
***************************
Title: A Challenge to Physics-based Prediction of Giant Solar Flares
Author: Kanya Kusano (Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University, Japan)
Date/time: May 26 (Tue), 2020, 12:00-13:00 UT
Zoom Registration URL:
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_rCd6IEGhSM-M7pI7oobk-A
Abstract:
Solar flares are catastrophic explosions in the solar corona and may potentially cause a severe space weather disaster. However, because the onset mechanism of solar flares is not yet well elucidated, most of the flare forecasts in operation rely on empirical methods. We recently developed a new physics-based model, called the κ-scheme, for predicting giant solar flares as one of the major outcomes of the Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP), which is the Japanese nation-wide project for space weather and space climate study. The κ-scheme is able to predict imminent giant solar flares through the critical condition of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instability triggered by magnetic reconnection. An analysis of the largest solar flares in solar cycle 24 indicates that the κ-scheme can provide precise information, including location and size, of possible giant solar flares with a small exception. Through this study, we also discovered that the magnetic twist flux density in the vicinity of the magnetic polarity inversion line (PIL) on the solar surface plays a crucial role in determining when, where, and how large solar flares may occur. Finally, we will discuss how important is the development of physics-based prediction to improve our predictive capability and the scientific understanding of solar-terrestrial system dynamics.
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